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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 43

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(4:59) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 32 yards to TEN 11, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.03 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP