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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model