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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2018-10-28 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CLE
23.8%
PIT
76.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.216 vs Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.123 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PIT on 7 more days rest than CLE
  • CLE defense: -0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
PIT 26
Projected margin: PIT by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CLE

E.J. Gaines CB Out Concussion
Rashard Higgins WR Out Knee
Joe Schobert LB Out Hamstring
Damarious Randall S Questionable Groin
Da'Mari Scott WR Questionable Shoulder
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Ankle

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 18
–
PIT 33

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:15 FG CLE (9:15) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 3 – PIT 0
  • Q1 02:38 FG CLE (2:38) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 11:35 TD PIT (11:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – PIT 6
  • Q2 00:10 TD PIT (:10) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – PIT 13
  • Q3 08:13 SAF PIT (8:13) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb to CLE 6 for 1 yard (98-V.Williams). PENALTY on CLE-69-D.Harrison, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. CLE 6 – PIT 16
  • Q3 05:29 TD CLE (5:29) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 11-A.Callaway for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-C.Sensabaugh, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. CLE 12 – PIT 16
  • Q3 02:49 TD PIT (2:49) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – PIT 22
  • Q4 13:33 FG PIT (13:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CLE 12 – PIT 26
  • Q4 02:10 TD PIT (2:10) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 12 – PIT 32
  • Q4 00:13 TD CLE (:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-S.DeValve for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 18 – PIT 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (9:15) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:01) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 48 yards to CLE 37, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers to 50 for 13 yards (34-T.Edmunds). PENALTY on CLE-25-D.Hilliard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:17) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 38 for 23 yards.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 79%

    (2:38) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to CLE 31, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 44 for 13 yards (45-R.Nix). PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Tripping, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 44.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%

    (13:33) (Field Goal formation) 17-G.Joseph 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to CLE 1 for 3 yards (38-T.Carrie).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:43) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to PIT 25, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 34 for 9 yards (54-T.Vallejo).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 32%

    (9:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CLE 4, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to PIT 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 84%

    (13:33) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 16 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:12) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to PIT 28, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer pushed ob at PIT 42 for 14 yards (87-S.DeValve).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:39) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CLE 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. PENALTY on CLE-25-D.Hilliard, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at CLE 15.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:48) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 46 yards to PIT 35, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.74 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 87-S.DeValve for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.