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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(9:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CLE 4, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model