Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 83

Cleveland Browns 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

(1:21) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to PIT 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -3.03 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.39 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model