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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(9:39) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CLE 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers. PENALTY on CLE-25-D.Hilliard, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at CLE 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.61 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model