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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 17 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:17) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to PIT 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 38 for 23 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.43 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model