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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 76

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to CLE 31, Center-57-K.Canaday. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 44 for 13 yards (45-R.Nix). PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Tripping, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model