Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 20 at the 61

Denver Broncos 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(6:11) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to KC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Hill to KC 8 for -3 yards (48-S.Barrett).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.80 EP
76% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model