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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
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KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2018-10-28 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

DEN
24.9%
KC
75.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.250 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.390 vs Case Keenum (DEN) -0.054 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: +0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • DEN on 3 more days rest than KC

Predicted Final Score

DEN 18
–
KC 25
Projected margin: KC by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

DEN

Royce Freeman RB Out Ankle
DaeSean Hamilton WR Out Knee
Darian Stewart S Out Neck
Jared Veldheer T Out Knee
Shane Ray LB Doubtful Ankle
Nico Falah C Questionable Concussion
Brandon Marshall LB Questionable Knee
Von Miller LB Questionable Ankle

KC

Mitch Morse C Out Concussion
Eric Berry S Doubtful Heel
Justin Houston LB Doubtful Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 23
–
KC 30

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:43 TD DEN (7:43) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – KC 0
  • Q1 02:21 FG KC (2:21) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. DEN 7 – KC 3
  • Q2 09:36 TD KC (9:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – KC 9
  • Q2 01:00 TD KC (1:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – KC 16
  • Q2 00:12 TD DEN (:12) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass deep right to 81-T.Patrick for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – KC 16
  • Q3 10:23 TD KC (10:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 14-S.Watkins for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 14 – KC 22
  • Q3 05:19 TD KC (5:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 27-K.Hunt for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 14 – KC 29
  • Q4 15:00 TD DEN (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 82-J.Heuerman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – KC 30
  • Q4 01:52 FG DEN (1:52) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman. DEN 23 – KC 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:43) 3-C.Wadman punts 44 yards to KC 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 37 for 14 yards.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to DEN 8, Center-41-J.Winchester. 16-I.McKenzie pushed ob at DEN 19 for 11 yards (35-C.Ward).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (2:21) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 55%

    (11:46) 8-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 20 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:11) 3-C.Wadman punts 50 yards to KC 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Hill to KC 8 for -3 yards (48-S.Barrett).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 19 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:12) 3-C.Wadman punts 22 yards to DEN 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 85%

    (5:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 27-K.Hunt for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 82-J.Heuerman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 44%

    (9:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 21%

    (7:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DEN 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 16-I.McKenzie to DEN 12 for 2 yards (35-C.Ward). DEN-16-I.McKenzie was injured during the play.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (5:15) 3-C.Wadman punts 59 yards to KC 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Hill to KC 27 for 4 yards (47-J.Jewell).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 14 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:12) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to DEN 35, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%

    (1:52) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 32 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.87 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 68%

    (:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 17 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-44-D.O'Daniel.