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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to DEN 8, Center-41-J.Winchester. 16-I.McKenzie pushed ob at DEN 19 for 11 yards (35-C.Ward).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.12 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model