Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 90

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

(7:12) 3-C.Wadman punts 22 yards to DEN 32, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.61 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.12 EP
72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 90, worth -5.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model