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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 23

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(5:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 27-K.Hunt for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.56 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 23, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 33, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model