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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 4

Denver Broncos 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-C.Keenum pass short right to 82-J.Heuerman for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.06 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 4, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model