4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 41

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.63 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP