4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DEN 10, Center-41-J.Winchester. 16-I.McKenzie to DEN 12 for 2 yards (35-C.Ward). DEN-16-I.McKenzie was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.57 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.66 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP