Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 82

Denver Broncos 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

(5:15) 3-C.Wadman punts 59 yards to KC 23, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 10-T.Hill to KC 27 for 4 yards (47-J.Jewell).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.81 EP
49% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model