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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 18

Denver Broncos 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 30

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-3-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.34 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model