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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 32

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(:13) 2-D.Colquitt punts 17 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-44-D.O'Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +0.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.87 EP