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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to GB 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model