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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2018-10-28 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 57.0

Win Probability

GB
23.4%
LA
76.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.206 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): +0.256 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • GB on 6 more days rest than LA

Predicted Final Score

GB 20
–
LA 29
Projected margin: LA by 9 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

GB

Randall Cobb WR Questionable Hamstring
Jason Spriggs T Questionable Ankle
Equanimeous St. Brown WR Questionable Knee

LA

Cooper Kupp WR Doubtful Knee
Trevon Young LB Doubtful Back

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 27
–
LA 29

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:05 TD GB (6:05) 30-J.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – LA 0
  • Q2 14:23 FG GB (14:23) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 10 – LA 0
  • Q2 02:54 SAF LA (2:54) 33-A.Jones up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (26-M.Barron). GB 10 – LA 2
  • Q2 00:25 TD LA (:25) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 83-J.Reynolds for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – LA 8
  • Q3 09:43 FG GB (9:43) 2-M.Crosby 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. GB 13 – LA 8
  • Q3 07:28 TD LA (7:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 30-T.Gurley for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – LA 14
  • Q3 01:56 TD LA (1:56) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 83-J.Reynolds for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – LA 22
  • Q3 00:21 TD GB (:21) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – LA 23
  • Q4 11:44 FG LA (11:44) 4-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. GB 20 – LA 26
  • Q4 08:57 TD GB (8:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 26 – LA 26
  • Q4 02:09 FG LA (2:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. GB 27 – LA 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 16 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 29%

    (11:32) 84-L.Kendricks reported in as eligible. 6-J.Scott punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (8:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to GB 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 20 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to GB 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 38-T.Williams to GB 32 for 13 yards (53-J.Lawler; 37-S.Shields).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 88%

    (14:23) 2-M.Crosby 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 20 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to GB 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:36) 6-J.Scott punts 43 yards to LA 36, Center-43-H.Bradley. 19-J.Natson to LA 38 for 2 yards (35-J.Whitehead).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (8:29) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass short right to 37-S.Shields to GB 43 for 12 yards (36-R.Greene).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 48%

    (7:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to GB 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:58) 6-J.Scott punts 55 yards to LA 20, Center-43-H.Bradley. 19-J.Natson to LA 20 for no gain (27-J.Jones).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 25%

    (3:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to GB 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to GB 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 38-T.Williams.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 68%

    (9:43) 2-M.Crosby 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:19) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to LA 34, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-54-J.Crawford.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 86%

    (11:44) 4-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 14 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to GB 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:30) 6-J.Scott punts 25 yards to GB 40, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-84-L.Kendricks.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 13 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (2:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.