4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 43

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to GB 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.82 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP