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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to GB 1, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-37-S.Shields.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model