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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 4-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.46 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model