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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to GB 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.65 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model