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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to GB 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.31 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model