Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 85

Green Bay Packers 27 – Los Angeles Rams 26

(5:30) 6-J.Scott punts 25 yards to GB 40, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-84-L.Kendricks.

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.31 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 85, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model