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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 16

Los Angeles Rams 26 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(2:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model