Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 20 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(3:22) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to GB 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 38-T.Williams to GB 32 for 13 yards (53-J.Lawler; 37-S.Shields).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.03 EP
72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model