4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 28 – Indianapolis Colts 28

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 5-J.Townsend punts 25 yards to IND 43, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-86-L.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model