Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV offense: -0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- LV on 7 more days rest than IND
- QB edge to IND: Derek Carr (LV) -0.012 vs Andrew Luck (IND) +0.130 EPA/dropback
- LV defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 8
IND
OAK
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:27 TD IND (8:27) 12-A.Luck pass deep left to 81-M.Alie-Cox for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – OAK 0
- Q1 00:03 FG IND (:03) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – OAK 0
- Q2 12:01 TD LV (12:01) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 10-S.Roberts for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 10 – OAK 6
- Q2 06:20 TD LV (6:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 87-J.Cook for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. IND 10 – OAK 13
- Q2 00:29 FG IND (:29) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – OAK 14
- Q3 09:51 TD LV (9:51) 4-D.Carr up the middle to IND 1 for no gain (96-D.Autry). PENALTY on IND-23-K.Moore II, Defensive Offside,0 yards,enforced at IND 1 - No Play. Oakland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Carr up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-23-K.Moore II, Defensive Offside, declined. IND 13 – OAK 20
- Q3 07:45 TD IND (7:45) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 85-E.Ebron for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – OAK 21
- Q3 01:06 TD LV (1:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 19-B.LaFell for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 21 – OAK 27
- Q4 10:50 TD IND (10:50) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 27 – OAK 28
- Q4 05:33 TD IND (5:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 84-J.Doyle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 34 – OAK 28
- Q4 03:03 TD IND (3:03) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 41 – OAK 28
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(7:29) 5-J.Townsend punts 55 yards to IND 12, Center-47-T.Sieg. 80-C.Rogers to IND 22 for 10 yards (50-N.Morrow).
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Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EPp(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%
(:03) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
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Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EPp(convert) 55%
(10:50) 2-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to LV 22, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 17-D.Harris to LV 21 for -1 yards (46-L.Rhodes, 28-C.Milton).
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Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%
(:29) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.
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Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%
(9:51) 4-D.Carr up the middle to IND 1 for no gain (96-D.Autry). PENALTY on IND-23-K.Moore II, Defensive Offside,0 yards,enforced at IND 1 - No Play. Oakland challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-D.Carr up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-23-K.Moore II, Defensive Offside, declined.
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Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(9:30) 5-J.Townsend punts 25 yards to IND 43, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-86-L.Smith.
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Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 57 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 19-B.LaFell.