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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 28 – Indianapolis Colts 42

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 19-B.LaFell.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.51 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model