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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 5-J.Townsend punts 55 yards to IND 12, Center-47-T.Sieg. 80-C.Rogers to IND 22 for 10 yards (50-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 25, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model