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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(:03) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 8, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP