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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 19

Miami Dolphins 7 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.76 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model