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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Thursday 2018-10-25 · 20:20 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

MIA
35.0%
HOU
65.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to HOU: Deshaun Watson (HOU) +0.131 vs Brock Osweiler (MIA) -0.089 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIA defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 20
–
HOU 25
Projected margin: HOU by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIA

Charles Harris DE Out Calf
Kenny Stills WR Out Groin
Ryan Tannehill QB Out right Shoulder
Mike Gesicki TE Questionable Shoulder
A.J. Derby TE Questionable Foot

HOU

Aaron Colvin CB Out Ankle
Keke Coutee WR Out Hamstring
Zach Fulton G Out Ankle
Ryan Griffin TE Out Illness
Andre Hal S Out Shoulder
Brian Peters LB Out Ankle
Shareece Wright CB Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 23
–
HOU 42

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:03 TD MIA (5:03) 32-K.Drake right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – HOU 0
  • Q1 00:35 TD HOU (:35) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – HOU 6
  • Q2 14:18 TD HOU (14:18) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 83-J.Thomas for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – HOU 13
  • Q2 03:01 FG MIA (3:01) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 10 – HOU 14
  • Q3 11:43 TD HOU (11:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 83-J.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – HOU 20
  • Q3 05:03 TD MIA (5:03) 80-D.Amendola pass deep right to 32-K.Drake for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Direct snap to #8, who laterals to #80, who threw the pass. MIA 16 – HOU 21
  • Q3 04:31 TD HOU (4:31) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 15-W.Fuller for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – HOU 27
  • Q3 00:39 FG MIA (:39) 7-J.Sanders 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 20 – HOU 28
  • Q4 15:00 TD HOU (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – HOU 34
  • Q4 11:30 FG MIA (11:30) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 23 – HOU 35
  • Q4 07:39 TD HOU (7:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 10-D.Hopkins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 23 – HOU 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 82%

    (10:54) 8-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short right to 21-F.Gore (55-B.McKinney).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (9:41) 8-T.Daniel punts 42 yards to MIA 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-J.Grant to MIA 31 for 8 yards (58-P.Kalambayi).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:51) 2-M.Haack punts 60 yards to HOU 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 49%

    (7:37) 8-T.Daniel punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (3:01) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:28) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to HOU 14, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (1:46) 8-T.Daniel punts 42 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (11:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 83-J.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:01) 2-M.Haack punts 37 yards to HOU 17, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:55) 8-T.Daniel punts 53 yards to MIA 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 49 for 21 yards (20-J.Reid).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 88%

    (:39) 7-J.Sanders 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%

    (11:30) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:06) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to HOU 26, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-T.Ervin to MIA 46 for 28 yards (55-J.Baker; 53-M.Spaight). PENALTY on HOU-23-J.Bademosi, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39. Penalty on HOU-88-J.Akins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 51%

    (1:14) 8-T.Daniel punts 31 yards to MIA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.