Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 55

Miami Dolphins 10 – Houston Texans 14

(:28) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to HOU 14, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 21-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.64 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -1.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model