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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 66

Houston Texans 14 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 8-T.Daniel punts 42 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP