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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 2

Houston Texans 14 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(11:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 83-J.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 2, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model