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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 17 – Houston Texans 28

What Actually Happened

(:39) 7-J.Sanders 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.71 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model