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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 20 – Houston Texans 35

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.32 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model