Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 76

Miami Dolphins 23 – Houston Texans 42

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 2-M.Haack punts 50 yards to HOU 26, Center-92-J.Denney. 21-T.Ervin to MIA 46 for 28 yards (55-J.Baker; 53-M.Spaight). PENALTY on HOU-23-J.Bademosi, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39. Penalty on HOU-88-J.Akins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.77 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model