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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 20

New England Patriots 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.83 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model