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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Monday 2018-10-29 · 20:15 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread -13.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NE
74.2%
BUF
25.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.280 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Derek Anderson (BUF) -0.217 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.183 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
BUF 14
Projected margin: NE by 10 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NE

Eric Rowe CB Out Groin
Brian Schwenke C Out Foot
Jacob Hollister TE Out Hamstring
Sony Michel RB Doubtful Knee
Trenton Brown T Questionable Ankle
Marcus Cannon T Questionable Concussion
Josh Gordon WR Questionable Hamstring
Geneo Grissom DE Questionable Ankle
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Ankle
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
John Simon DE Questionable Shoulder
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Ankle

BUF

Josh Allen QB Out right Elbow
Taiwan Jones RB Out Neck
Trent Murphy DE Out Knee
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 25
–
BUF 6

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:49 FG NE (4:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – BUF 0
  • Q2 11:51 FG NE (11:51) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 05:46 FG NE (5:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 9 – BUF 0
  • Q2 01:44 FG BUF (1:44) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. NE 9 – BUF 3
  • Q3 07:42 FG BUF (7:42) 4-S.Hauschka 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. NE 9 – BUF 6
  • Q3 02:06 FG NE (2:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 12 – BUF 6
  • Q4 10:01 TD NE (10:01) 28-J.White up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 18 – BUF 6
  • Q4 06:09 TD NE (6:09) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass short right intended for 85-C.Clay INTERCEPTED by 32-D.McCourty at NE 16. 32-D.McCourty for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 24 – BUF 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 14 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:54) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 36%

    (10:08) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick through end zone.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (4:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 15%

    (1:49) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%

    (11:51) 3-S.Gostkowski 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:20) 9-C.Bojorquez to BUF 21 for -15 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at BUF 21. 9-C.Bojorquez punts 26 yards to NE 38, downed by BUF-42-P.DiMarco.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (5:46) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 73%

    (1:44) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 66%

    (:10) 3-S.Gostkowski 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. Penalty on NE-93-L.Guy, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 20 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 22%

    (11:26) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to NE 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF. Penalty for illegal block after fair catch signal, but before ball was touched. Ball considered downed at NE 9. PENALTY on NE-11-J.Edelman, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at NE 9.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (9:29) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde pushed ob at NE 35 for 31 yards (6-R.Allen; 36-B.King).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 63%

    (7:42) 4-S.Hauschka 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 28%

    (3:50) 6-R.Allen punts 28 yards to BUF 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 20 for 2 yards (31-J.Jones).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (2:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 18%

    (14:56) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to NE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 66%

    (3:55) (Shotgun) 3-D.Anderson pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Benjamin (24-S.Gilmore). Receiver and coverage at NE 25, slanting right.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (3:00) 6-R.Allen punts 31 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 18 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 36%

    (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman pass short left to 25-L.McCoy to NE 34 for 9 yards (31-J.Jones). Swing pass, caught at NE 45.