Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 66

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(12:54) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to BUF 32, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.50 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model