Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to NE 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF. Penalty for illegal block after fair catch signal, but before ball was touched. Ball considered downed at NE 9. PENALTY on NE-11-J.Edelman, Unnecessary Roughness, 4 yards, enforced at NE 9.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
80% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP

KICK -1.69 EP

22% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
78% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model