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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 33

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 4-S.Hauschka 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model