4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 46

New England Patriots 9 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 6-R.Allen punts 28 yards to BUF 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 23-M.Hyde to BUF 20 for 2 yards (31-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.38 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model