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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 61

New England Patriots 25 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 6-R.Allen punts 31 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.63 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP