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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 7

New England Patriots 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 7, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model